Chris Anderson, The Long Tail

Chris Anderson, The Long Tail (Why the Future of Buisiness is selling less of more)

The Long Tail is a book about abundance. While it is primarily aimed at Retail, I found some thoughts that affect municipal government also, in addition to the effects of the Internet on local retail businesses.

The Book suggests that the period of “mass markets” and “hits” etc. is being fragmented into a wide variety of markets where there is a “long tail”. That is, the era of 20% of the products accounting for 80% of sales is breing fragmented, especially in products where storage (music etc.) is almost a zero cost and almost unlimited.

He speculates the “mass market” is becoming a “market of multitudes”, or specifically, a “market of niches”.

This will affect traditional retail (which municipal government depends on for sales taxes), since “The curse of traditional retail is to find local audiences” However, this is not a problem where the project can be stored on the Internet or even where a catalog can be on the internet with products stored. For example, “Mom and Pop Records” may be able to store 3,000 records. However “I-tunes” literally has millions of records. The local record store is limited by the cost of shelf space. I-tunes shelf space is close zero cost of each unit.

This allows for “niche markets”. A person can almost find unlimited music on I-tunes, while limited to 3,000 at the local retail store. This will create the “Market of Multitudes”.

The power of the “Long Tail” is already apparent In politics (this written on January 6, 2008) in that many “niche” presidential candidates can reach the public and almost become viable candidates, or at least force the “mainstream” parties to consider their needs.

A primary example of the “Long Tail” affect on national security is the rise of terrorism. Three major trends provide for this:

-Niche producers can find tools almost anywhere

-Niche groups can create a lot of damage (i.e., a plane ticket and a box knife) when a simple act is leveraged by the complicated major economic and social fabric.

-The acceleration of word of mouth. Groups can reach more audiences and more likely to reach fringe audiences.

The same principles apply to a wide variety of movements, actions and collective mobilization where a small action is amplified by “viral marketing”.

It appears that this could significantly affect municipal government (and other institutions) as the actions or needs of a few are amplified throughout the structure of the organization or community. I will expand on this thought throughout the review.

Themes of the Long Tail:

-In any market, there are far more niche goods than “hits”.

-Costs of reaching the niches is falling dramatically

-Consumers must be given a way to find the “niches”. This is being accomplished by a range of tools and techniques (use recommendations, rankings etc.) which are made effective by the Internet.

-Demand curve flattens (after the demand for niche is inceased by the tools and techniques, often called “filters”.

-Although none of the niches sell a lot, they all add up. (I think in the area of ideas, a wide variety of fringe ideas could be consolidated much more easily than in the past.)

Three Powerful Forces:

1. Democratizing the tools of production. (Personal computer, blogs, etc.-Now anyone can be a “producer”.

The “universe” of production is increasing due to more producers

2. Costs of consumption is cheap and “anyone” can make and distribute content!

3. Connection of Supply and Demand. (This is a result of Google searches, recommendations, rankings, blogs etc. that the word (product or idea etc.) gets out.

-End Result: We are becoming Active Producers from passive consumers

-Reputation Economy-(also described as “exposure culture”.

*”The Ants have Microphones”: Collective now controls the message. It doesn’t matter what a company says it is-it is what the “collective” says it is! (Blogs, rankings, customer reviews etc.) (This would also apply to a City.)

One problem is there is a lot of “noise” in the “long tail”. (The author noted the “Long Tail is full of crap”, meaning that the bad ideas may kill the good ideas. I feel this could be a major problem for communication with residents, filtering out the nonsense. There isn’t a lot of “filters” available for ideas.

“Niche” interest may fragment our culture as people split into “tribes” of special interests. This could dramatically increase conflict as small groups of people with single purpose (a “tribe” could include a few people geographically dispersed who have more power due to the tools of production being so available and cheap, and most of all amplified leading to a polarization of a city, regardless of it’s size or geography.

The “Long Tail” will have a significant effect on cities, both from an economic standard, as more products are sold on untaxed transactions (leading to financial problems or finding new sources of revenue) and an effect on the social fabric of cities as citizens become polarized into social and/or economic “tribes”, each with a different goal or objective or idea. Managing these competing interests will consume a large amount of time and effort.

Internet Video Surveillance

Internet Protocol Video Surveillance-NLC-November 15, 2007 New orleans
-IPVS is designed to integrate
-Keeps options open
-Can scale to future operations
-Not subject to other vendors (not propriety)
IPVS is best.
Pros: Most flexible, program includes GPS system, can control camera from browser
Implementing IPVS
-Identify physical and operational business requirements first
-No Standards!
-Include all Departmetns and outside agencies in the planning phase
-Integrate with as many safety, security and operational applications as possible
-Choice is NON-propriety
-Phase video surveillance iln as with any IT system
-Inform Everyone EARLY
-Resources:
www.ipvs.com
www.anixter.com/surveillanceguide
www.axis.com
I attended this session since the City of Lakeland is considering a surveillance system. I will investigate this as opposed to the system we currently specifying.

On-LIne Governance

-Democracy (On-line governance), NLC, November 16, 2007
Basic Assumption: Same principles apply to on-line governance as to actual democratic government
NLC.Org (Democratic governance panel)
www.studycircles.com
www.inforen.org
Leighninger, The Next Form of Democracy
Helpline.deliberative-democracy.net
Common pitfalls
-Hoping technology by itself will change the dynamic
-Structuring groundrules can change conversation
-Assuming public officials are “experts”
-Unproductive confrontation
-Believing “if you build it they will come” (same old people will come!)
-Failure to “label and link”
Let people know you heard them and you are listening
-Concentrating on input and not on partnership possibilities (“government can fix that”)
SOLUTIONS
-Invite participants to meet prior to on-line discussions (avoids “inpersonal” etc.)
-Inform how input information will be used (input without stating this may lead to frustration)
-Respond to all input-even if just say “I heard you”
-Information Technology used different at City level
-All forms available on web site
-All policies on web site (that are public record)
Listening
-Provide detailed information on issue, ask for response/comments on those parts of the issue
PROBLEMS:
-“E-spam” etc. (Require registration)
-Organized responses
-Allow comments only from residents?
-If post for comments-Emphasize NOT a vote!
FOLLOW UP on comments
Comments: Since we are considering this, this session was especially important. Actually, I talked with our IT person who does our website and she bought up enough problems that I am not considering this any more at this time.

Bloomberg NLC

Michael Bloomberg, NLC, November 16, 2007
Job is to GET THINKS DONE
-Accountability
I. Vision
a. Strategy
b. Accountability
Accountability is difference between failure and success
Government tends to move resources from things that do work to things that don’t work. (doesn’t make sense)
Accountability: Basis of government success
Keep promises-when wrong, be honest!
People need to have courage to invest in long-term projects-projects that are not going to get done during term (or maybe even this generation!)
Aspects of Accountability
1. Independence
2. Not letting special interests influence decision
3. Courage to try new ideas
Some key thoughts I got out of this keynote speech is:
-Think of the long-term-don’t take the “easy route” of short-term solutions –review and look at long term
-Make up on own mind
-Don’t get in a comfortable rut-try new ideas
-Vision/strategy to meet that vision are important

New Frontiers that Change Everything

ICMA 10/9/07-Dr. Lowell Catlett “New Frontiers that Change Everything”
We have to “observe”, not just “see” changing events.
The world has changed from a “production world” (now excess production) to a “consumer world”.-Luxury items are considered normal.
CHANGES/TRENDS
-Population now wants “self-actualization” (in hierarchy of needs)
-No Retirement (re-engaging, not retiring)
-Living longer and healthier
-Fewer children, being replaced with entertainment, second houses etc.
-Fewer children, being replaced with pets, horses etc. Becoming much more important
-Convenience has become more important than cost-save time is more important
-“people afford what they want”-Price/cost doesn’t matter-they will afford
-IPOD etc. Listen when, where and what you want.
-22-30 year olds-find the place they want to live, then find a job
(Follow-up Workshop)
-Single Women (no significant other) purchasing homes-women at age 60 are 56-44 ratio
-As population ages, decisions made more on emotion than logic (will make a major different in communities)
-Over 50, more concerned with “leaving legacy” (what have done to improve the world etc.)-Good for volunteerism
-“Green has legs”
These trends indicate changes for cities. I feel these trends will spill over to city operations and will affect how cities decide on priorities-if cost is no object and convenience is the key, it will make a difference in how cities conduct business. Also, of course need to consider the changing demographics, the change in technology etc.
We will need to promote “human capital” and consider how to promote the integration of the diversity of groups into a “community”.

The Tipping Point (book)

Malcalm Gladwell, The Tipping Point

This book was interesting to me because it studies the reasons for sudden changes. I have noticed throughout my career that it is frequently the “little things” that create major changes (and frequently sudden, major change), so I wanted to read it to help me understand, and, to some degree, manage such phenomenon.

His basic theory is that “ideas, projects, messages and behaviors” spread just like viruses do. Characteristics include:

1. They are clear examples of “contagious behavior”

2. “Little changes have big effects”

3. Changes happen in a hurry.

Gladwell states that the “sudden” change is the most important factor and he calls the sudden change “The Tipping Point”. The Tipping Point is that point of Critical Mass.

AGENTS OF CHANGE:

What are the causes of change leading to a “tipping point”.

1. Law of the few

Some people matter more than others. Tiny percentage of the population are the key factors in the change. Probably can identify that the “change agents” are different.

Key categories are “Connectors, Mavens and Salesmen”

The “Connectors” are persons who know a lot of persons and operate in a lot of different worlds. They are able to distribute information to a lot of different “worlds” in a short amount of time and do so effectively. Connectors know lots of people, lots of different types of people and are able to develop “weak tie” social connections

The “Maven” is an informational specialist and, more important, they distribute the information.

The “Salesmen” are the persuaders, even when they don’t necessarily intend to be.

2. Stickiness Factor

Stickiness means that a message has an impact, for whatever reason.

There are ways of making a message memorable. We may be able to make small changes that will increase the “stickiness factor” and make the message memorable.

Some examples in the book (Sesame Street) etc. were noted, but there is not “one” way to re-package a message to make it “sticky”. Repetition and involvement of the audience have helped make a message memorable and thus “sticky”.

3. Power of Context

The actual situation will make a major difference. Human beings are a lot more sensitive to their environment than they may seem.

Power of Context is important since we are extremely sensitive to context. (“Broken Windows” theory, that broken windows provide a context for further disruption etc. Appears to “give permission” to others. Minor, seemingly insignificant Quality of Life items are “Tipping Points” for crime.

The way the “message” is conveyed (context) also could make it “sticky” and context.

Persons with ties to many groups are important to spread to Tipping Point.

Rule of 150

Peer pressure is much more impt than the Boss.

RUMORS:

-Story is “leveled” (all kinds of details essential for meaning are left out)

-Story is “sharpened” (Details that remain are made more specific)

-Process of Assimilation takes place-story is changed to fit and make more sense to persons spreading it.

-“Permission” to do act

-Context (Beauty salon) etc., target resources

www.gladwell.com

SUMMARY: These concepts are obviously important in City government, in getting messages across, and analyzing how problems and forces develop.

Some of the thoughts on communication (“getting the message across”), the “broken window theory” etc. are especially valuable.

Lincoln's assets

ICMA 10/10/07: Doris Kearns Goodwin, “Lincoln”

This is a followup to the book I previously reviewed “Lincoln and his Generals”. It was a pleasure to hear her go over the concepts in the book in person and also add some new perspectives.

-Lincoln loved Gossip-it is important for leaders to know what is going on.

Lincoln’s assets:

-Listened to different points of view

-Ability to grow in job (learned from mistakes)

-Shared Credit for success (build “bank account” of goodwill)

-Willingness to shoulder blame for failure of subordinates

-Create awareness of subordinates weaknesses and abilty to compensate for them

-When angry, able to control emotions (writing letters, never sending etc.)

-Resolution, strength to ahere to his goals, regardless of problems

-Ability to relax and replenish for next day

-Visiting the front lines, going “in the field”

-Community goals and objectives (vision etc.) to the country.

I feel all of these are important to leadership and my everyday job. I review these on a regular basis and review whether I am using these assets and incorporating them into my leadership character.