Chris Anderson, The Long Tail (Why the Future of Buisiness is selling less of more)
The Long Tail is a book about abundance. While it is primarily aimed at Retail, I found some thoughts that affect municipal government also, in addition to the effects of the Internet on local retail businesses.
The Book suggests that the period of “mass markets” and “hits” etc. is being fragmented into a wide variety of markets where there is a “long tail”. That is, the era of 20% of the products accounting for 80% of sales is breing fragmented, especially in products where storage (music etc.) is almost a zero cost and almost unlimited.
He speculates the “mass market” is becoming a “market of multitudes”, or specifically, a “market of niches”.
This will affect traditional retail (which municipal government depends on for sales taxes), since “The curse of traditional retail is to find local audiences” However, this is not a problem where the project can be stored on the Internet or even where a catalog can be on the internet with products stored. For example, “Mom and Pop Records” may be able to store 3,000 records. However “I-tunes” literally has millions of records. The local record store is limited by the cost of shelf space. I-tunes shelf space is close zero cost of each unit.
This allows for “niche markets”. A person can almost find unlimited music on I-tunes, while limited to 3,000 at the local retail store. This will create the “Market of Multitudes”.
The power of the “Long Tail” is already apparent In politics (this written on January 6, 2008) in that many “niche” presidential candidates can reach the public and almost become viable candidates, or at least force the “mainstream” parties to consider their needs.
A primary example of the “Long Tail” affect on national security is the rise of terrorism. Three major trends provide for this:
-Niche producers can find tools almost anywhere
-Niche groups can create a lot of damage (i.e., a plane ticket and a box knife) when a simple act is leveraged by the complicated major economic and social fabric.
-The acceleration of word of mouth. Groups can reach more audiences and more likely to reach fringe audiences.
The same principles apply to a wide variety of movements, actions and collective mobilization where a small action is amplified by “viral marketing”.
It appears that this could significantly affect municipal government (and other institutions) as the actions or needs of a few are amplified throughout the structure of the organization or community. I will expand on this thought throughout the review.
Themes of the Long Tail:
-In any market, there are far more niche goods than “hits”.
-Costs of reaching the niches is falling dramatically
-Consumers must be given a way to find the “niches”. This is being accomplished by a range of tools and techniques (use recommendations, rankings etc.) which are made effective by the Internet.
-Demand curve flattens (after the demand for niche is inceased by the tools and techniques, often called “filters”.
-Although none of the niches sell a lot, they all add up. (I think in the area of ideas, a wide variety of fringe ideas could be consolidated much more easily than in the past.)
Three Powerful Forces:
1. Democratizing the tools of production. (Personal computer, blogs, etc.-Now anyone can be a “producer”.
The “universe” of production is increasing due to more producers
2. Costs of consumption is cheap and “anyone” can make and distribute content!
3. Connection of Supply and Demand. (This is a result of Google searches, recommendations, rankings, blogs etc. that the word (product or idea etc.) gets out.
-End Result: We are becoming Active Producers from passive consumers
-Reputation Economy-(also described as “exposure culture”.
*”The Ants have Microphones”: Collective now controls the message. It doesn’t matter what a company says it is-it is what the “collective” says it is! (Blogs, rankings, customer reviews etc.) (This would also apply to a City.)
One problem is there is a lot of “noise” in the “long tail”. (The author noted the “Long Tail is full of crap”, meaning that the bad ideas may kill the good ideas. I feel this could be a major problem for communication with residents, filtering out the nonsense. There isn’t a lot of “filters” available for ideas.
“Niche” interest may fragment our culture as people split into “tribes” of special interests. This could dramatically increase conflict as small groups of people with single purpose (a “tribe” could include a few people geographically dispersed who have more power due to the tools of production being so available and cheap, and most of all amplified leading to a polarization of a city, regardless of it’s size or geography.
The “Long Tail” will have a significant effect on cities, both from an economic standard, as more products are sold on untaxed transactions (leading to financial problems or finding new sources of revenue) and an effect on the social fabric of cities as citizens become polarized into social and/or economic “tribes”, each with a different goal or objective or idea. Managing these competing interests will consume a large amount of time and effort.
